Modelling the spread of ragweed: Effects of habitat, climate change and diffusion

Autor(en)

Gero Vogl, Manfred Smolik, Lorenz-Mathias Stadler, Franz Essl, Michael Leitner, Stefan Dullinger, Ingrid Kleinbauer, Johannes Peterseil

Abstrakt

Ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) is an annual plant native in North America which has been invading Central Europe for 150 years. Caused by the warming of the European climate its spread process has accelerated in the last few decades. The pollen of ragweed evokes heavy allergies and – what probably counts even more – because of its bloom rather late in summer causes a second wave of allergy when other pollen allergies have decayed. We have reconstructed the invasion process of ragweed in Austria by collecting all records until the year 2005. Austria was subdivided into more than 2600 grid cells of ≈ 35km2 each. Ragweed records were related to environmental descriptors (average temperatures, land use, etc.) by means of logistic regression models, and the suitability of grid cells as habitat for ragweed was determined. This enabled modelling of the diffusive spread of ragweed from 1990 to 2005. The results of the simulations were compared with the observed data, and thus the model was optimised. We then incorporated regional climate change models, in particular increased July mean temperatures of +2.3∘C in 2050, increasing considerably future habitat suitability. This is used for predicting the drastic dispersal of ragweed during the forthcoming decades

Organisation(en)

Dynamik Kondensierter Systeme

Externe Organisation(en)

Hamburger Synchrotronstahlungslabor HASYLAB

Journal

European Physical Journal. Special Topics

Band

161

Seiten

167-173

Anzahl der Seiten

7

ISSN

1951-6355

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2008-00758-y

Publikationsdatum

2008

Peer-reviewed

Ja

ÖFOS 2012

106030 Pflanzenökologie

Sustainable Development Goals

SDG 13 – Maßnahmen zum Klimaschutz, SDG 15 – Leben an Land

Link zum Portal

https://ucrisportal.univie.ac.at/de/publications/modelling-the-spread-of-ragweed-effects-of-habitat-climate-change-and-diffusion(d94783b2-7e9c-403c-9e92-0247ffd3fe4c).html