European scenarios for future biological invasions

Autor(en)

Cristian Pérez-Granados, Bernd Lenzner, Marina Golivets, Wolf Christian Saul, Jonathan M. Jeschke, Franz Essl, Garry D. Peterson, Lucas Rutting, Guillaume Latombe, Tim Adriaens, David C. Aldridge, Sven Bacher, Rubén Bernardo-Madrid, Lluís Brotons, François Díaz, Belinda Gallardo, Piero Genovesi, Pablo González-Moreno, Ingolf Kühn, Petra Kutleša, Brian Leung, Chunlong Liu, Konrad Pagitz, Teresa Pastor, Aníbal Pauchard, Wolfgang Rabitsch, Peter Robertson, Helen E. Roy, Hanno Seebens, Wojciech Solarz, Uwe Starfinger, Rob Tanner, Montserrat Vilà, Núria Roura-Pascual

Abstrakt

Invasive alien species are one of the major threats to global biodiversity, ecosystem integrity, nature's contributions to people and human health. While scenarios about potential future developments have been available for other global change drivers for quite some time, we largely lack an understanding of how biological invasions might unfold in the future across spatial scales. Based on previous work on global invasion scenarios, we developed a workflow to downscale global scenarios to a regional and policy-relevant context. We applied this workflow at the European scale to create four European scenarios of biological invasions until 2050 that consider different environmental, socio-economic and socio-cultural trajectories, namely the European Alien Species Narratives (Eur-ASNs). We compared the Eur-ASNs with their previously published global counterparts (Global-ASNs), assessing changes in 26 scenario variables. This assessment showed a high consistency between global and European scenarios in the logic and assumptions of the scenario variables. However, several discrepancies in scenario variable trends were detected that could be attributed to scale differences. This suggests that the workflow is able to capture scale-dependent differences across scenarios. We also compared the Global- and Eur-ASNs with the widely used Global and European Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), a set of scenarios developed in the context of climate change to capture different future socio-economic trends. Our comparison showed considerable divergences in the scenario space occupied by the different scenarios, with overall larger differences between the ASNs and SSPs than across scales (global vs. European) within the scenario initiatives. Given the differences between the ASNs and SSPs, it seems that the SSPs do not adequately capture the scenario space relevant to understanding the complex future of biological invasions. This underlines the importance of developing independent but complementary scenarios focussed on biological invasions. The downscaling workflow we implemented and presented here provides a tool to develop such scenarios across different regions and contexts. This is a major step towards an improved understanding of all major drivers of global change, including biological invasions. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Organisation(en)

Department für Botanik und Biodiversitätsforschung

Externe Organisation(en)

Universitat de Girona, Universidad de Alicante, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung, Freie Universität Berlin (FU), Leibniz-Institut für Gewässerökologie und Binnenfischerei, Berlin-Brandenburgisches Institut für Biodiversitätsforschung, Stockholm University, Utrecht University, University of Edinburgh, Research Institute for Nature and Forest, University of Cambridge, Université de Fribourg, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD-CSIC), Forest Science and Technology Centre of Catalonia (CTFC), Centro de Investigacion Ecologica y Aplicaciones Forestales (CREAF), CSIC - Real Jardin Botanico (RJB), WOAH (World Organisation for Animal Health) Headquarters, Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología (CSIC), ISPRA - Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale, Universidad de Córdoba, CABI United Kingdom, Martin-Luther-Universität Halle-Wittenberg, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development, McGill University, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Leopold-Franzens-Universität Innsbruck, EUROPARC Federation, Universidad de Concepción, Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity (IEB), Umweltbundesamt, Newcastle University, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Senckenberg Forschungsinstitut und Naturmuseum, Polish Academy of Sciences (PAS), Julius Kühn-Institute (JKI), European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization, Universidad de Sevilla

Journal

People and Nature

Band

6

Seiten

245-259

Anzahl der Seiten

15

ISSN

2575-8314

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1002/pan3.10567

Publikationsdatum

2023

Peer-reviewed

Ja

ÖFOS 2012

106008 Botanik

Schlagwörter

ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete

Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

Sustainable Development Goals

SDG 3 – Gesundheit und Wohlergehen, SDG 13 – Maßnahmen zum Klimaschutz

Link zum Portal

https://ucrisportal.univie.ac.at/de/publications/e0fbc7fe-91f7-41b6-8903-77f8fe14ab39